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Sariñena vs Almudévar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sariñena
Sariñena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Almudévar
Almudévar
3/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Estadio El Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sariñena48%
×Draw26%
Almudévar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sariñena
1.50
Almudévar
1.04

Sariñena creates 44% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sariñena
1.72
Almudévar
0.77

allows per match

Sariñena
1.31
Almudévar
1.29

finishing

Sariñena+0.00on par
Almudévar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sariñena ↓

Almudévar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sariñena or draw
74%
Sariñena or Almudévar
74%
Draw or Almudévar
52%

Winning margin

Sariñena wins by 2+
24%
Almudévar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sariñena 1+ goals
78%
Sariñena 2+ goals
44%
Sariñena 3+ goals
19%
Almudévar 1+ goals
65%
Almudévar 2+ goals
28%
Almudévar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sariñena (draw refunded)
65%
Almudévar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sariñena at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Almudévar away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.29 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sariñena attack 1.72 + Almudévar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Almudévar attack 0.77 + Sariñena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sariñena scores more
48%
level
26%
Almudévar scores more
26%

Sariñena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Sariñena 1–2 Almudévar

Almudévar beat Sariñena 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Carmen in Sariñena.