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Sardor Tursunzoda vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Sardor Tursunzoda
Sardor Tursunzoda
Preview
14:00
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
8/14/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 14
38%
Sardor Tursunzoda
model favours
38%27%35%
1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sardor Tursunzoda38%
×Draw27%
Khosilot Farkhor35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sardor Tursunzoda
1.25
Khosilot Farkhor
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sardor Tursunzoda
0.83
Khosilot Farkhor
1.19

allows per match

Sardor Tursunzoda
1.17
Khosilot Farkhor
1.67

finishing

Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sardor Tursunzoda ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sardor Tursunzoda or draw
65%
Sardor Tursunzoda or Khosilot Farkhor
73%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
62%

Winning margin

Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+
17%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals
71%
Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals
36%
Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals
13%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
69%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
33%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)
52%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sardor Tursunzoda at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 0.83 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.19 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sardor Tursunzoda scores more
38%
level
27%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
35%

Sardor Tursunzoda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sardor Tursunzoda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Tursunzoda
LDLLL
Farkhor
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sardor Tursunzoda face Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)

Vysshaya Liga returns with Sardor Tursunzoda hosting Khosilot Farkhor. Match starts August 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.