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Khosilot Farkhor vs Sardor Tursunzoda — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Sardor Tursunzoda
Sardor Tursunzoda
4/5/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Khosilot Farkhor49%
×Draw22%
Sardor Tursunzoda29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khosilot Farkhor
1.96
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.46

Khosilot Farkhor creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 7 away

creates per match

Khosilot Farkhor
1.64
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.43

allows per match

Khosilot Farkhor
1.48
Sardor Tursunzoda
2.29

finishing

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par
Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khosilot Farkhor ↓

Sardor Tursunzoda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Khosilot Farkhor or draw
71%
Khosilot Farkhor or Sardor Tursunzoda
78%
Draw or Sardor Tursunzoda
51%

Winning margin

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
28%
Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
86%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
58%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
31%
Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals
77%
Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals
43%
Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
63%
Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khosilot Farkhor at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.48 · 33 matches

Sardor Tursunzoda away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.64 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 1.43 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Khosilot Farkhor scores more
49%
level
22%
Sardor Tursunzoda scores more
29%

Khosilot Farkhor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Khosilot Farkhor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Khosilot Farkhor 3–2 Sardor Tursunzoda

Khosilot Farkhor beat Sardor Tursunzoda 3-2 in Vysshaya Liga on April 5, 2026.