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Sardor Tursunzoda vs Istaravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Sardor Tursunzoda
Sardor Tursunzoda
Preview
12:00
Istaravshan
Istaravshan
10/23/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 20
42%
Sardor Tursunzoda
model favours
42%28%30%

Istaravshan win just 0% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sardor Tursunzoda42%
×Draw28%
Istaravshan30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sardor Tursunzoda
1.28
Istaravshan
1.02

Sardor Tursunzoda creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sardor Tursunzoda
0.83
Istaravshan
0.88

allows per match

Sardor Tursunzoda
1.17
Istaravshan
1.74

finishing

Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par
Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sardor Tursunzoda ↓

Istaravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sardor Tursunzoda or draw
70%
Sardor Tursunzoda or Istaravshan
72%
Draw or Istaravshan
58%

Winning margin

Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+
19%
Istaravshan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals
72%
Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals
37%
Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals
14%
Istaravshan 1+ goals
64%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
27%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)
59%
Istaravshan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sardor Tursunzoda at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 0.83 + Istaravshan defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.28

Istaravshan attack 0.88 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sardor Tursunzoda scores more
42%
level
28%
Istaravshan scores more
30%

Sardor Tursunzoda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sardor Tursunzoda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Tursunzoda
LDLLL
Istaravshan
DDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sardor Tursunzoda host Istaravshan

October 23, 2026: Sardor Tursunzoda take on Istaravshan in Vysshaya Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.