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Istaravshan vs Sardor Tursunzoda — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Istaravshan
Istaravshan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sardor Tursunzoda
Sardor Tursunzoda
6/17/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Istaravshan45%
×Draw24%
Sardor Tursunzoda31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istaravshan
1.70
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.37

Istaravshan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 7 away

creates per match

Istaravshan
1.10
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.43

allows per match

Istaravshan
1.31
Sardor Tursunzoda
2.29

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par
Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

Sardor Tursunzoda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw
69%
Istaravshan or Sardor Tursunzoda
76%
Draw or Sardor Tursunzoda
55%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+
24%
Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals
82%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
51%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
24%
Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals
75%
Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals
40%
Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)
59%
Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

Sardor Tursunzoda away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.10 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 1.43 + Istaravshan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Istaravshan scores more
45%
level
24%
Sardor Tursunzoda scores more
31%

Istaravshan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Istaravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Istaravshan 1–1 Sardor Tursunzoda

Istaravshan and Sardor Tursunzoda drew 1-1 in Vysshaya Liga on June 17, 2026.