Sardor Tursunzoda 0–2 CSKA Pomir: Result & Stats

Sardor Tursunzoda

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Pomir

5/9/2026

Vysshaya Liga · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sardor Tursunzoda30%

×Draw31%

CSKA Pomir39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sardor TursunzodaExpected goals in this matchCSKA Pomir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.09

Sardor Tursunzoda

0.92

CSKA Pomir

1.09

CSKA Pomir creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 49 away

0.83

creates per match

1.02

1.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sardor Tursunzoda

0.83

CSKA Pomir

1.02

allows per match

Sardor Tursunzoda

1.17

CSKA Pomir

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sardor Tursunzoda ↓

CSKA Pomir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sardor Tursunzoda or draw

61%

Sardor Tursunzoda or CSKA Pomir

69%

Draw or CSKA Pomir

70%

Winning margin

Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+

11%

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals

60%

Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals

23%

Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals

7%

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals

66%

CSKA Pomir 2+ goals

30%

CSKA Pomir 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)

44%

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sardor Tursunzoda at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 0.83 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

CSKA Pomir attack 1.02 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sardor Tursunzoda scores more

30%

level

31%

CSKA Pomir scores more

39%

CSKA Pomir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff