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Sardor Tursunzoda vs Barki Tajik — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Sardor Tursunzoda
Sardor Tursunzoda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
4/25/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sardor Tursunzoda33%
×Draw28%
Barki Tajik39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sardor Tursunzoda
1.10
Barki Tajik
1.21

Barki Tajik creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sardor Tursunzoda
0.83
Barki Tajik
1.26

allows per match

Sardor Tursunzoda
1.17
Barki Tajik
1.38

finishing

Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par
Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sardor Tursunzoda ↓

Barki Tajik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sardor Tursunzoda or draw
61%
Sardor Tursunzoda or Barki Tajik
72%
Draw or Barki Tajik
67%

Winning margin

Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+
13%
Barki Tajik wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals
67%
Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals
30%
Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals
10%
Barki Tajik 1+ goals
70%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
34%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)
46%
Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sardor Tursunzoda at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Barki Tajik away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 0.83 + Barki Tajik defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Barki Tajik attack 1.26 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sardor Tursunzoda scores more
33%
level
28%
Barki Tajik scores more
39%

Barki Tajik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barki Tajik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sardor Tursunzoda vs Barki Tajik

Barki Tajik beat Sardor Tursunzoda 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 25, 2026.