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Niroye Zamini vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
1 – 2
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
7/7/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 28Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Niroye Zamini34%
×Draw30%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
1.02
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 32 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.76
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.90
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
64%
Niroye Zamini or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
70%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
66%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
13%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
64%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
27%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
8%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
66%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
29%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
48%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.02

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
34%
level
30%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
36%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Niroye Zamini 1–2 SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Niroye Zamini 2-1 in Azadegan League on July 7, 2020.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.