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Damash Gilanian vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
FT
0 – 1
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
6/30/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Damash Gilanian39%
×Draw32%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damash Gilanian
1.03
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.83

Damash Gilanian creates 24% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 84 away

creates per match

Damash Gilanian
0.91
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Damash Gilanian
0.90
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw
71%
Damash Gilanian or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
68%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
61%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
15%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
64%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
28%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
9%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
56%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
20%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
58%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.90 · 69 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more
39%
level
32%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
29%

Damash Gilanian at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Damash Gilanian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Damash Gilanian 0–1 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Damash Gilanian 1-0 in Azadegan League on June 30, 2020.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.