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Sarasota Paradise vs Tampa Bay United — USL League Two 2018

Sarasota Paradise
Sarasota Paradise
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Tampa Bay United
Tampa Bay United
6/12/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 9Cleland Stadium at Ihrig Feild at Sarasota High

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sarasota Paradise58%
×Draw22%
Tampa Bay United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarasota Paradise
1.92
Tampa Bay United
1.04

Sarasota Paradise creates 85% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sarasota Paradise
2.15
Tampa Bay United
1.28

allows per match

Sarasota Paradise
0.80
Tampa Bay United
1.68

finishing

Sarasota Paradise+0.00on par
Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarasota Paradise ↓

Tampa Bay United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sarasota Paradise or draw
80%
Sarasota Paradise or Tampa Bay United
78%
Draw or Tampa Bay United
42%

Winning margin

Sarasota Paradise wins by 2+
34%
Tampa Bay United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sarasota Paradise 1+ goals
85%
Sarasota Paradise 2+ goals
57%
Sarasota Paradise 3+ goals
30%
Tampa Bay United 1+ goals
65%
Tampa Bay United 2+ goals
28%
Tampa Bay United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sarasota Paradise (draw refunded)
74%
Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarasota Paradise at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Tampa Bay United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarasota Paradise attack 2.15 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tampa Bay United attack 1.28 + Sarasota Paradise defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sarasota Paradise scores more
58%
level
22%
Tampa Bay United scores more
20%

Sarasota Paradise at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sarasota Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarasota Paradise vs Tampa Bay United

Sarasota Paradise and Tampa Bay United drew 4-4 in USL League Two on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Cleland Stadium at Ihrig Feild at Sarasota High in Sarasota, Florida.