Saransk 1–0 Znamya Noginsk: Result & Stats

Saransk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Znamya Noginsk

10/4/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Saransk48%

×Draw26%

Znamya Noginsk26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaranskExpected goals in this matchZnamya Noginsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.06

Saransk

1.52

Znamya Noginsk

1.06

Saransk creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 55 away

1.25

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Saransk

1.25

Znamya Noginsk

1.13

allows per match

Saransk

1.00

Znamya Noginsk

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saransk+0.00on par

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saransk ↓

Znamya Noginsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Saransk or draw

74%

Saransk or Znamya Noginsk

74%

Draw or Znamya Noginsk

52%

Winning margin

Saransk wins by 2+

24%

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Saransk 1+ goals

78%

Saransk 2+ goals

45%

Saransk 3+ goals

20%

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

65%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

29%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Saransk (draw refunded)

64%

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saransk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saransk attack 1.25 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Saransk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Saransk scores more

48%

level

26%

Znamya Noginsk scores more

26%

Saransk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff