Saransk 1–0 Zenit Penza: Result & Stats | Cup

Saransk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit Penza

S. Timoshkin 50'

7/14/2021

Cup · 1st RoundMordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saransk52%

×Draw28%

Zenit Penza20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaranskExpected goals in this matchZenit Penza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.75

Saransk

1.38

Zenit Penza

0.75

Saransk creates 84% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Saransk

1.00

Zenit Penza

0.50

allows per match

Saransk

1.00

Zenit Penza

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saransk+0.00on par

Zenit Penza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saransk ↓

Zenit Penza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Saransk or draw

80%

Saransk or Zenit Penza

72%

Draw or Zenit Penza

48%

Winning margin

Saransk wins by 2+

25%

Zenit Penza wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Saransk 1+ goals

75%

Saransk 2+ goals

40%

Saransk 3+ goals

16%

Zenit Penza 1+ goals

53%

Zenit Penza 2+ goals

17%

Zenit Penza 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Saransk (draw refunded)

72%

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saransk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Zenit Penza away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saransk attack 1.00 + Zenit Penza defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zenit Penza attack 0.50 + Saransk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Saransk scores more

52%

level

28%

Zenit Penza scores more

20%

Saransk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

S. Timoshkin

57'

M. Timchenko← A. Kuznetsov

57'

E. Zakharov← D. Kashmin

66'

D. Korolev← A. Sarychev

66'

E. Taragara← D. Chernukhin

75'

I. Khleborodov← I. Kuzmichev

78'

D. Kuptsov← V. Aralin

Saransk

Zenit

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Y. Mochalov

75'▲I. Khleborodov←▼I. Kuzmichev

Saransk substitutes

Khleborodov

Manager: V. Demidov

57'▲M. Timchenko←▼A. Kuznetsov

57'▲E. Zakharov←▼D. Kashmin

66'▲D. Korolev←▼A. Sarychev

66'▲E. Taragara←▼D. Chernukhin

78'▲D. Kuptsov←▼V. Aralin

Zenit Penza substitutes

TimchenkoZakharovKorolevTaragaraKuptsov

Match Recap: Saransk vs Zenit Penza

Saransk beat Zenit Penza 1-0 in Cup on July 14, 2021.

Goals: S. Timoshkin (50').

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.

Saransk vs Zenit Penza — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Saransk vs Zenit Penza