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Saransk vs Salyut-Belgorod — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saransk
Saransk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
4/2/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 1Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Saransk31%
×Draw27%
Salyut-Belgorod42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saransk
1.13
Salyut-Belgorod
1.35

Salyut-Belgorod creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 85 away

creates per match

Saransk
1.25
Salyut-Belgorod
1.71

allows per match

Saransk
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00

finishing

Saransk+0.00on par
Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saransk ↓

Salyut-Belgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Saransk or draw
58%
Saransk or Salyut-Belgorod
73%
Draw or Salyut-Belgorod
69%

Winning margin

Saransk wins by 2+
13%
Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Saransk 1+ goals
68%
Saransk 2+ goals
31%
Saransk 3+ goals
11%
Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
74%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
39%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Saransk (draw refunded)
43%
Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saransk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Salyut-Belgorod away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saransk attack 1.25 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Salyut-Belgorod attack 1.71 + Saransk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saransk scores more
31%
level
27%
Salyut-Belgorod scores more
42%

Salyut-Belgorod at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Salyut-Belgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Saransk 0–2 Salyut-Belgorod

Salyut-Belgorod beat Saransk 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.