Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Saransk vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saransk
Saransk
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
10/31/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Saransk55%
×Draw22%
Peresvet Podolsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saransk
1.89
Peresvet Podolsk
1.12

Saransk creates 69% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

creates per match

Saransk
1.25
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

Saransk
1.00
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

Saransk+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saransk ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Saransk or draw
78%
Saransk or Peresvet Podolsk
78%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
45%

Winning margin

Saransk wins by 2+
32%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saransk 1+ goals
85%
Saransk 2+ goals
56%
Saransk 3+ goals
29%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
67%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
31%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saransk (draw refunded)
71%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saransk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saransk attack 1.25 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.89

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Saransk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Saransk scores more
55%
level
22%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
22%

Saransk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Saransk 3–2 Peresvet Podolsk

Saransk beat Peresvet Podolsk 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.