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Saransk vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saransk
Saransk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
4/30/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 5Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Saransk36%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Vladivostok37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saransk
1.21
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 55 away

creates per match

Saransk
1.25
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.45

allows per match

Saransk
1.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.16

finishing

Saransk+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saransk ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Saransk or draw
63%
Saransk or Dinamo Vladivostok
73%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
64%

Winning margin

Saransk wins by 2+
15%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Saransk 1+ goals
70%
Saransk 2+ goals
34%
Saransk 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
35%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Saransk (draw refunded)
49%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saransk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saransk attack 1.25 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + Saransk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Saransk scores more
36%
level
27%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
37%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Saransk 1–1 Dinamo Vladivostok

Saransk and Dinamo Vladivostok drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.