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Saransk vs Avangard Kursk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saransk
Saransk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
6/4/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 11Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Saransk42%
×Draw27%
Avangard Kursk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saransk
1.37
Avangard Kursk
1.14

Saransk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 57 away

creates per match

Saransk
1.25
Avangard Kursk
1.28

allows per match

Saransk
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.49

finishing

Saransk+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saransk ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Saransk or draw
69%
Saransk or Avangard Kursk
73%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
58%

Winning margin

Saransk wins by 2+
20%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Saransk 1+ goals
75%
Saransk 2+ goals
40%
Saransk 3+ goals
16%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
68%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
32%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Saransk (draw refunded)
57%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saransk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saransk attack 1.25 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.37

Avangard Kursk attack 1.28 + Saransk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saransk scores more
42%
level
27%
Avangard Kursk scores more
31%

Saransk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saransk vs Avangard Kursk

Saransk and Avangard Kursk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.