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Sarıyer vs Turgutluspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Sarıyer
Sarıyer
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Turgutluspor
Turgutluspor
11/5/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundYusuf Ziya Öniş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sarıyer53%
×Draw21%
Turgutluspor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarıyer
2.12
Turgutluspor
1.46

Sarıyer creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sarıyer
1.80
Turgutluspor
1.71

allows per match

Sarıyer
1.20
Turgutluspor
2.43

finishing

Sarıyer+0.00on par
Turgutluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarıyer ↓

Turgutluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sarıyer or draw
74%
Sarıyer or Turgutluspor
79%
Draw or Turgutluspor
47%

Winning margin

Sarıyer wins by 2+
31%
Turgutluspor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sarıyer 1+ goals
88%
Sarıyer 2+ goals
62%
Sarıyer 3+ goals
35%
Turgutluspor 1+ goals
77%
Turgutluspor 2+ goals
43%
Turgutluspor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sarıyer (draw refunded)
66%
Turgutluspor (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarıyer at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Turgutluspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarıyer attack 1.80 + Turgutluspor defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.12

Turgutluspor attack 1.71 + Sarıyer defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sarıyer scores more
53%
level
21%
Turgutluspor scores more
26%

Sarıyer at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sarıyer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Sarıyer 2–4 Turgutluspor

Turgutluspor beat Sarıyer 4-2 in Türkiye Kupası on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadyumu in İstanbul.