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Sarıyer vs Rizespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Sarıyer
Sarıyer
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Rizespor
Rizespor
11/1/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundYusuf Ziya Öniş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sarıyer52%
×Draw23%
Rizespor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarıyer
1.83
Rizespor
1.21

Sarıyer creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sarıyer
1.80
Rizespor
1.23

allows per match

Sarıyer
1.20
Rizespor
1.85

finishing

Sarıyer+0.00on par
Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarıyer ↓

Rizespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sarıyer or draw
75%
Sarıyer or Rizespor
77%
Draw or Rizespor
48%

Winning margin

Sarıyer wins by 2+
29%
Rizespor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sarıyer 1+ goals
84%
Sarıyer 2+ goals
54%
Sarıyer 3+ goals
28%
Rizespor 1+ goals
70%
Rizespor 2+ goals
34%
Rizespor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sarıyer (draw refunded)
67%
Rizespor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarıyer at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Rizespor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarıyer attack 1.80 + Rizespor defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Rizespor attack 1.23 + Sarıyer defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sarıyer scores more
52%
level
23%
Rizespor scores more
25%

Sarıyer at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sarıyer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Sarıyer 1–2 Rizespor

Rizespor beat Sarıyer 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 1, 2018.

The match was played at Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadyumu in İstanbul.