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SAPA II vs PPJ — Suomen Cup 2018

SAPA II
SAPA II
FT
0 – 2
PPJ
PPJ
3/13/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölön Pallokenttä 6 tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SAPA II22%
×Draw21%
PPJ57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SAPA II
1.25
PPJ
2.13

PPJ creates 70% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

SAPA II
1.33
PPJ
3.27

allows per match

SAPA II
1.00
PPJ
1.18

finishing

SAPA II+0.00on par
PPJ+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAPA II ↓

PPJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SAPA II or draw
43%
SAPA II or PPJ
79%
Draw or PPJ
78%

Winning margin

SAPA II wins by 2+
9%
PPJ wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

SAPA II 1+ goals
71%
SAPA II 2+ goals
36%
SAPA II 3+ goals
13%
PPJ 1+ goals
88%
PPJ 2+ goals
63%
PPJ 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

SAPA II (draw refunded)
28%
PPJ (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAPA II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

PPJ away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAPA II attack 1.33 + PPJ defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

PPJ attack 3.27 + SAPA II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SAPA II scores more
22%
level
21%
PPJ scores more
57%

PPJ at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "PPJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: SAPA II 0–2 PPJ

PPJ beat SAPA II 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Töölön Pallokenttä 6 tn in Helsinki.