São Salvador 4–1 União de Malanje: Result & Stats

São Salvador

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

União de Malanje

10/29/2023

Girabola · Round 1Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

São Salvador64%

×Draw23%

União de Malanje13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São SalvadorExpected goals in this matchUnião de Malanje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.63

São Salvador

1.74

União de Malanje

0.63

São Salvador creates 176% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

1.41

creates per match

0.50

0.75

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

São Salvador

1.41

União de Malanje

0.50

allows per match

São Salvador

0.75

União de Malanje

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par

União de Malanje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

União de Malanje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw

87%

São Salvador or União de Malanje

77%

Draw or União de Malanje

36%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+

37%

União de Malanje wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals

82%

São Salvador 2+ goals

52%

São Salvador 3+ goals

25%

União de Malanje 1+ goals

47%

União de Malanje 2+ goals

13%

União de Malanje 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)

83%

União de Malanje (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

União de Malanje away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + União de Malanje defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.74

União de Malanje attack 0.50 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

São Salvador scores more

64%

level

23%

União de Malanje scores more

13%

São Salvador at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: São Salvador 4–1 União de Malanje

São Salvador beat União de Malanje 4-1 in Girabola on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta in M'banza-Kongo.

São Salvador vs União de Malanje — Girabola 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Girabola: São Salvador 4–1 União de Malanje