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São Salvador vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019

São Salvador
São Salvador
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
4/3/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 17Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

São Salvador45%
×Draw30%
Sagrada Esperança25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Salvador
1.20
Sagrada Esperança
0.82

São Salvador creates 46% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 112 away

creates per match

São Salvador
1.41
Sagrada Esperança
0.90

allows per match

São Salvador
0.75
Sagrada Esperança
0.99

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw
75%
São Salvador or Sagrada Esperança
70%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
55%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+
20%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals
70%
São Salvador 2+ goals
34%
São Salvador 3+ goals
12%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
56%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
20%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)
64%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.90 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

São Salvador scores more
45%
level
30%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
25%

São Salvador at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: São Salvador 2–0 Sagrada Esperança

São Salvador beat Sagrada Esperança 2-0 in Girabola on April 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta in M'banza-Kongo.