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São Salvador vs Desportivo Huíla — Girabola 2019

São Salvador
São Salvador
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
5/8/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 25Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

São Salvador50%
×Draw29%
Desportivo Huíla22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Salvador
1.31
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

São Salvador creates 72% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 100 away

creates per match

São Salvador
1.41
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

allows per match

São Salvador
0.75
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par
Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

Desportivo Huíla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw
78%
São Salvador or Desportivo Huíla
71%
Draw or Desportivo Huíla
50%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+
23%
Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals
73%
São Salvador 2+ goals
38%
São Salvador 3+ goals
14%
Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
53%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
18%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)
70%
Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

São Salvador scores more
50%
level
29%
Desportivo Huíla scores more
22%

São Salvador at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: São Salvador 0–0 Desportivo Huíla

São Salvador and Desportivo Huíla drew 0-0 in Girabola on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta in M'banza-Kongo.