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São Salvador vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

São Salvador
São Salvador
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
9/25/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 2Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

São Salvador46%
×Draw29%
Bravos do Maquis FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Salvador
1.25
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.85

São Salvador creates 47% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 106 away

creates per match

São Salvador
1.41
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

São Salvador
0.75
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw
75%
São Salvador or Bravos do Maquis FC
71%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
54%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+
21%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals
71%
São Salvador 2+ goals
36%
São Salvador 3+ goals
13%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
57%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
21%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)
64%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

São Salvador scores more
46%
level
29%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
25%

São Salvador at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: São Salvador 0–0 Bravos do Maquis FC

São Salvador and Bravos do Maquis FC drew 0-0 in Girabola on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta in M'banza-Kongo.