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São Salvador vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

São Salvador
São Salvador
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
3/10/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

São Salvador52%
×Draw28%
Académica do Lobito20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Salvador
1.36
Académica do Lobito
0.72

São Salvador creates 89% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 100 away

creates per match

São Salvador
1.41
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

São Salvador
0.75
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw
80%
São Salvador or Académica do Lobito
72%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
48%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+
25%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals
74%
São Salvador 2+ goals
39%
São Salvador 3+ goals
16%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
51%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
16%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)
72%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

São Salvador scores more
52%
level
28%
Académica do Lobito scores more
20%

São Salvador at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Salvador vs Académica do Lobito

São Salvador beat Académica do Lobito 2-0 in Girabola on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta in M'banza-Kongo.