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Académica do Lobito vs São Salvador — Girabola 2019

Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
São Salvador
São Salvador
4/19/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 25Estádio do Buraco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Académica do Lobito49%
×Draw30%
São Salvador21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Lobito
1.23
São Salvador
0.68

Académica do Lobito creates 81% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 44 away

creates per match

Académica do Lobito
1.13
São Salvador
0.59

allows per match

Académica do Lobito
0.76
São Salvador
1.34

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par
São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

São Salvador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw
79%
Académica do Lobito or São Salvador
70%
Draw or São Salvador
51%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
22%
São Salvador wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
71%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
35%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
13%
São Salvador 1+ goals
49%
São Salvador 2+ goals
15%
São Salvador 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
71%
São Salvador (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

São Salvador attack 0.59 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more
49%
level
30%
São Salvador scores more
21%

Académica do Lobito at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Académica do Lobito vs São Salvador

Académica do Lobito beat São Salvador 1-0 in Girabola on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Buraco in Lobito.