Sao Raimundo 1–2 Trem: Result & Stats | Serie D

Sao Raimundo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Trem

Lucas 8'

Gilmar Pitimbu 85', 78'

5/11/2024

Serie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Flamarion Vasconcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sao Raimundo58%

×Draw22%

Trem20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao RaimundoExpected goals in this matchTrem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.03

Sao Raimundo

1.92

Trem

1.03

Sao Raimundo creates 86% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 36 away

2.00

creates per match

1.17

0.90

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sao Raimundo

2.00

Trem

1.17

allows per match

Sao Raimundo

0.90

Trem

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Raimundo+0.00on par

Trem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Raimundo ↓

Trem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sao Raimundo or draw

80%

Sao Raimundo or Trem

78%

Draw or Trem

42%

Winning margin

Sao Raimundo wins by 2+

34%

Trem wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sao Raimundo 1+ goals

85%

Sao Raimundo 2+ goals

57%

Sao Raimundo 3+ goals

30%

Trem 1+ goals

64%

Trem 2+ goals

28%

Trem 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sao Raimundo (draw refunded)

74%

Trem (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Raimundo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.90 · 49 matches

Trem away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Raimundo attack 2.00 + Trem defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Trem attack 1.17 + Sao Raimundo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sao Raimundo scores more

58%

level

22%

Trem scores more

20%

Sao Raimundo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sao Raimundo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Lucas

34'

Kattê← Tácio

34'

Mauro← Rubran

54'

Matheus Gonzaga← Thales

54'

N. Reina← Marcos Felipe

55'

Maike Sillas← Balão Marabá

62'

Henrique← Luã

62'

Matheus Tomaz← Léo Reis

72'

72'

76'

76'

78'

85'

90'

Eduardo Ninja← Emerson

Sao

Trem

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Chiquinho Viana

54'▲Matheus Gonzaga←▼Thales

54'▲N. Reina←▼Marcos Felipe

62'▲Henrique←▼Luã

62'▲Matheus Tomaz←▼Léo Reis

90'▲Eduardo Ninja←▼Emerson

Sao Raimundo substitutes

GonzagaReinaHenriqueTomazNinjaMarcãoFernandesIarleyPauloFernandoRianQuinha

Manager: Sandro Macapá

34'▲Kattê←▼Tácio

34'▲Mauro←▼Rubran

55'▲Maike Sillas←▼Balão Marabá

72'▲Eduardo Lopes←▼Levi

72'▲Igor Nunes←▼Foguete

Trem substitutes

KattêMauroSillasLopesNunesDecoPinhoFelipeFerreiraNetoPolacoSilvio