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Sao Raimundo vs Juventude MA — Serie D 2018

Sao Raimundo
Sao Raimundo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Juventude MA
Juventude MA
9/27/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 2Estádio Flamarion Vasconcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sao Raimundo52%
×Draw25%
Juventude MA23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Raimundo
1.57
Juventude MA
0.95

Sao Raimundo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sao Raimundo
2.02
Juventude MA
1.00

allows per match

Sao Raimundo
0.90
Juventude MA
1.13

finishing

Sao Raimundo+0.00on par
Juventude MA+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Raimundo ↓

Juventude MA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sao Raimundo or draw
77%
Sao Raimundo or Juventude MA
75%
Draw or Juventude MA
48%

Winning margin

Sao Raimundo wins by 2+
27%
Juventude MA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sao Raimundo 1+ goals
79%
Sao Raimundo 2+ goals
46%
Sao Raimundo 3+ goals
21%
Juventude MA 1+ goals
61%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
25%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sao Raimundo (draw refunded)
69%
Juventude MA (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Raimundo at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Juventude MA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Raimundo attack 2.02 + Juventude MA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

Juventude MA attack 1.00 + Sao Raimundo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sao Raimundo scores more
52%
level
25%
Juventude MA scores more
23%

Sao Raimundo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sao Raimundo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Sao Raimundo 1–1 Juventude MA

Sao Raimundo and Juventude MA drew 1-1 in Serie D on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Flamarion Vasconcelos in Boa Vista, Roraima.