São Paulo W 2–1 Sport Recife W: Result & Stats

São Paulo W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sport Recife W

4/16/2025

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

São Paulo W75%

×Draw16%

Sport Recife W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Paulo WExpected goals in this matchSport Recife W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

0.81

São Paulo W

2.55

Sport Recife W

0.81

São Paulo W creates 215% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 23 away

2.15

creates per match

0.78

0.85

allows per match

2.96

creates per match

São Paulo W

2.15

Sport Recife W

0.78

allows per match

São Paulo W

0.85

Sport Recife W

2.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Paulo W+0.00on par

Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo W ↓

Sport Recife W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

São Paulo W or draw

90%

São Paulo W or Sport Recife W

84%

Draw or Sport Recife W

25%

Winning margin

São Paulo W wins by 2+

53%

Sport Recife W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

São Paulo W 1+ goals

92%

São Paulo W 2+ goals

72%

São Paulo W 3+ goals

46%

Sport Recife W 1+ goals

56%

Sport Recife W 2+ goals

19%

Sport Recife W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

São Paulo W (draw refunded)

88%

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo W at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.85 · 65 matches

Sport Recife W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo W attack 2.15 + Sport Recife W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.55

Sport Recife W attack 0.78 + São Paulo W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

São Paulo W scores more

75%

level

16%

Sport Recife W scores more

10%

São Paulo W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "São Paulo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff