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São Paulo W vs Real Ariquemes W — Brasileiro Women 2018

São Paulo W
São Paulo W
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Real Ariquemes W
Real Ariquemes W
4/3/2023Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 6Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

São Paulo W83%
×Draw11%
Real Ariquemes W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo W
3.01
Real Ariquemes W
0.68

São Paulo W creates 343% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 8 away

creates per match

São Paulo W
2.15
Real Ariquemes W
0.50

allows per match

São Paulo W
0.85
Real Ariquemes W
3.88

finishing

São Paulo W+0.00on par
Real Ariquemes W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo W ↓

Real Ariquemes W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

São Paulo W or draw
94%
São Paulo W or Real Ariquemes W
89%
Draw or Real Ariquemes W
17%

Winning margin

São Paulo W wins by 2+
64%
Real Ariquemes W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

São Paulo W 1+ goals
95%
São Paulo W 2+ goals
80%
São Paulo W 3+ goals
56%
Real Ariquemes W 1+ goals
49%
Real Ariquemes W 2+ goals
15%
Real Ariquemes W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

São Paulo W (draw refunded)
94%
Real Ariquemes W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo W at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.85 · 65 matches

Real Ariquemes W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo W attack 2.15 + Real Ariquemes W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.01

Real Ariquemes W attack 0.50 + São Paulo W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

São Paulo W scores more
83%
level
11%
Real Ariquemes W scores more
6%

São Paulo W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "São Paulo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: São Paulo W 7–0 Real Ariquemes W

São Paulo W beat Real Ariquemes W 7-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 3, 2023.

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.