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São Paulo W vs Minas ICESP W — Brasileiro Women 2018

São Paulo W
São Paulo W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
5/29/2021Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 11Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

São Paulo W67%
×Draw20%
Minas ICESP W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo W
1.99
Minas ICESP W
0.74

São Paulo W creates 169% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 24 away

creates per match

São Paulo W
2.15
Minas ICESP W
0.63

allows per match

São Paulo W
0.85
Minas ICESP W
1.83

finishing

São Paulo W+0.00on par
Minas ICESP W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo W ↓

Minas ICESP W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

São Paulo W or draw
87%
São Paulo W or Minas ICESP W
80%
Draw or Minas ICESP W
33%

Winning margin

São Paulo W wins by 2+
41%
Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

São Paulo W 1+ goals
86%
São Paulo W 2+ goals
59%
São Paulo W 3+ goals
32%
Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
52%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
17%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

São Paulo W (draw refunded)
84%
Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo W at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.85 · 65 matches

Minas ICESP W away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo W attack 2.15 + Minas ICESP W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.99

Minas ICESP W attack 0.63 + São Paulo W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

São Paulo W scores more
67%
level
20%
Minas ICESP W scores more
13%

São Paulo W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "São Paulo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: São Paulo W 3–0 Minas ICESP W

São Paulo W beat Minas ICESP W 3-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.