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São Paulo W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W — Brasileiro Women 2018

São Paulo W
São Paulo W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
9/23/2020Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 10Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

São Paulo W72%
×Draw17%
Gremio Osasco Audax W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo W
2.42
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.83

São Paulo W creates 192% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 22 away

creates per match

São Paulo W
2.15
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.82

allows per match

São Paulo W
0.85
Gremio Osasco Audax W
2.68

finishing

São Paulo W+0.00on par
Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo W ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

São Paulo W or draw
89%
São Paulo W or Gremio Osasco Audax W
83%
Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax W
28%

Winning margin

São Paulo W wins by 2+
49%
Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

São Paulo W 1+ goals
91%
São Paulo W 2+ goals
69%
São Paulo W 3+ goals
43%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
56%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
20%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

São Paulo W (draw refunded)
87%
Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo W at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.85 · 65 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo W attack 2.15 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.42

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 0.82 + São Paulo W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

São Paulo W scores more
72%
level
17%
Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
11%

São Paulo W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "São Paulo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: São Paulo W 4–0 Gremio Osasco Audax W

São Paulo W beat Gremio Osasco Audax W 4-0 in Brasileiro Women on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.