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Sao Paulo vs Santos — League #475 2026

Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santos
Santos
1/31/2026League #475League #475 · Round 6Estadio Do MorumBIS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sao Paulo76%
×Draw17%
Santos8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo
2.21
Santos
0.54

Sao Paulo creates 309% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo
2.75
Santos
0.33

allows per match

Sao Paulo
0.75
Santos
1.67

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw
92%
Sao Paulo or Santos
83%
Draw or Santos
24%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+
51%
Santos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals
89%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
65%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
38%
Santos 1+ goals
42%
Santos 2+ goals
10%
Santos 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
91%
Santos (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Santos away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 2.75 + Santos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Santos attack 0.33 + Sao Paulo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sao Paulo scores more
76%
level
17%
Santos scores more
8%

Sao Paulo at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #475: Sao Paulo 2–0 Santos

Sao Paulo beat Santos 2-0 in League #475 on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Sao Paulo.