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Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino — Serie A 2026

Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino
11/8/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 33Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sao Paulo49%
×Draw25%
RB Bragantino26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo
1.61
RB Bragantino
1.10

Sao Paulo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo
1.58
RB Bragantino
1.20

allows per match

Sao Paulo
1.01
RB Bragantino
1.65

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.14scores more
RB Bragantino-0.26scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

RB Bragantino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw
74%
Sao Paulo or RB Bragantino
75%
Draw or RB Bragantino
51%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+
26%
RB Bragantino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals
80%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
48%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
22%
RB Bragantino 1+ goals
67%
RB Bragantino 2+ goals
30%
RB Bragantino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
65%
RB Bragantino (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 18 matches

RB Bragantino away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.58 + RB Bragantino defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

RB Bragantino attack 1.20 + Sao Paulo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sao Paulo scores more
49%
level
25%
RB Bragantino scores more
26%

Sao Paulo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Sao Paulo 1–0 RB Bragantino

Sao Paulo beat RB Bragantino 1-0 in Serie A on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos, São Paulo.