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RB Bragantino vs Sao Paulo — League #475 2026

RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
2/8/2025League #475League #475 · Round 8Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

RB Bragantino57%
×Draw24%
Sao Paulo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino
1.75
Sao Paulo
0.93

RB Bragantino creates 88% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino
1.50
Sao Paulo
0.86

allows per match

RB Bragantino
1.00
Sao Paulo
2.00

finishing

RB Bragantino+0.00on par
Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino ↓

Sao Paulo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

RB Bragantino or draw
80%
RB Bragantino or Sao Paulo
76%
Draw or Sao Paulo
43%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino wins by 2+
32%
Sao Paulo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

RB Bragantino 1+ goals
83%
RB Bragantino 2+ goals
52%
RB Bragantino 3+ goals
25%
Sao Paulo 1+ goals
61%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
24%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)
74%
Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino attack 1.50 + Sao Paulo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sao Paulo attack 0.86 + RB Bragantino defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

RB Bragantino scores more
57%
level
24%
Sao Paulo scores more
20%

RB Bragantino at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RB Bragantino vs Sao Paulo

RB Bragantino beat Sao Paulo 1-0 in League #475 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Bragança Paulista, São Paulo.