Sao Paulo 0–2 Independiente del Valle

Sao Paulo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente del Valle

L. Faravelli 67'

L. Díaz 13'

10/1/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · FinalEstadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sao Paulo55%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.83

Sao Paulo

1.56

Independiente del Valle

0.83

Sao Paulo creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

2.21

creates per match

1.17

0.50

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Sao Paulo

2.21

Independiente del Valle

1.17

allows per match

Sao Paulo

0.50

Independiente del Valle

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

80%

Sao Paulo or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

45%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

29%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

79%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

46%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

21%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

56%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

20%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

73%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 2.21 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.56

Independiente del Valle attack 1.17 + Sao Paulo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

55%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

20%

Sao Paulo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Faravelli

Independiente del Valle · M

8.6

Match Events

13'

L. Díaz↳ L. Faravelli

43'

Mateo Carabajal

45+1'

Reinaldo

67'

L. Faravelli↳ L. Díaz

73'

J. Ortiz← L. Díaz

75'

Igor Gomes← Rodrigo Nestor

75'

Eder← Patrick

75'

G. Galoppo← Alisson

79'

Richard Schunke

79'

Jaimen Ayoví← J. Sornoza

80'

87'

89'

89'

90+3'

90+6'

90+3'

90+5'

L. Ortíz← L. Faravelli

90+5'

B. Caicedo← J. Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaoIndependiente

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots10

7Corners3

21Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots10

5On Target6

3Off Target3

1Blocked1

7Inside Box4

2Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

418Total Passes395

334Accurate Passes303

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls7

4Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

8Offsides2