Sao Paulo 1–0 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sao Paulo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cruzeiro

11/2/2023

Serie A · Round 31Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sao Paulo47%

×Draw27%

Cruzeiro26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.96

Sao Paulo

1.38

Cruzeiro

0.96

Sao Paulo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.58

creates per match

0.90

1.01

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Sao Paulo

1.58

Cruzeiro

0.90

allows per match

Sao Paulo

1.01

Cruzeiro

1.17

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.14scores more

Cruzeiro-0.09on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

74%

Sao Paulo or Cruzeiro

73%

Draw or Cruzeiro

53%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

22%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

75%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

40%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

16%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

62%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

25%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

64%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 18 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.17 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.58 + Cruzeiro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cruzeiro attack 0.90 + Sao Paulo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

47%

level

27%

Cruzeiro scores more

26%

Sao Paulo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff