Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo — Serie A 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 18+ matches
Cruzeiro51%
Sao Paulo22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cruzeiro creates 70% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cruzeiro ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 21 matches
Sao Paulo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cruzeiro attack 1.27 + Sao Paulo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41
Sao Paulo attack 0.85 + Cruzeiro defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Cruzeiro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Palmeiras
Flamengo
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
Bahia
CoritibaSao Paulo
Botafogo
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
CorinthiansCruzeiro
Internacional
Gremio
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
Mirassol
Chapecoense-scIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Cruzeiro host Sao Paulo on Sunday, 15 September 2024 at 21:30. The match is part of the Serie A 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo beat Cruzeiro 1-0 in Serie A on September 15, 2024.
Goals: William (59').
Cruzeiro controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 14.
The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.