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São Paulo U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Santos U20
Santos U20advanced
Unknown 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen)
Igor Felisberto 36'
Lucca Marques 15', 5'
Unknown 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen)
Joao Ananias 82', 44'
Bernardo Paias 71'
11/16/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

São Paulo U2058%
×Draw21%
Santos U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
2.10
Santos U20
1.19

São Paulo U20 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
3.39
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

São Paulo U20
0.75
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
79%
São Paulo U20 or Santos U20
79%
Draw or Santos U20
42%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
35%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
88%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
62%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
35%
Santos U20 1+ goals
70%
Santos U20 2+ goals
33%
Santos U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
73%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
58%
level
21%
Santos U20 scores more
21%

São Paulo U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Lucca Marques
15'
Lucca Marques
36'
Igor Felisberto
44'
Joao Ananias
71'
Bernardo Paias
82'
Joao Ananias
120+1'
Missed penalty
120+1'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+5'
Missed penalty
120+5'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: São Paulo U20 3–3 Santos U20

São Paulo U20 and Santos U20 drew 3-3 in Paulista - U20 on November 16, 2025.

Goals: Lucca Marques (5', 15'), Igor Felisberto (36'), Joao Ananias (44', 82'), Bernardo Paias (71'), ? (120+2' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen).