São Paulo U20 1–0 Palmeiras U20: Result & Stats

São Paulo U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Palmeiras U20

D. Brito dos Santos 66' (OG)

7/23/2022

Brasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

São Paulo U2031%

×Draw23%

Palmeiras U2045%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Paulo U20Expected goals in this matchPalmeiras U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.74

São Paulo U20

1.41

Palmeiras U20

1.74

Palmeiras U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

1.59

creates per match

2.14

1.34

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

São Paulo U20

1.59

Palmeiras U20

2.14

allows per match

São Paulo U20

1.34

Palmeiras U20

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw

55%

São Paulo U20 or Palmeiras U20

77%

Draw or Palmeiras U20

69%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+

14%

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals

76%

São Paulo U20 2+ goals

41%

São Paulo U20 3+ goals

17%

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals

82%

Palmeiras U20 2+ goals

52%

Palmeiras U20 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 64 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.22 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Palmeiras U20 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.14 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more

31%

level

23%

Palmeiras U20 scores more

45%

Palmeiras U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

D. Brito dos SantosOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff