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São Paulo U20 vs Ibrachina U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
Preview
18:00
Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
8/14/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 12
59%
São Paulo U20
model favours
59%20%21%

Ibrachina U20 are unbeaten in 13 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

São Paulo U2059%
×Draw20%
Ibrachina U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
2.28
Ibrachina U20
1.29

São Paulo U20 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
3.39
Ibrachina U20
1.83

allows per match

São Paulo U20
0.75
Ibrachina U20
1.17

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Ibrachina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
79%
São Paulo U20 or Ibrachina U20
80%
Draw or Ibrachina U20
41%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
37%
Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
90%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
66%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
39%
Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
72%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
37%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Ibrachina U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.28

Ibrachina U20 attack 1.83 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
59%
level
20%
Ibrachina U20 scores more
21%

São Paulo U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ibrachina U20 have won 7 in a row
  • São Paulo U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Ibrachina U20 have scored in 13 games running
  • When São Paulo U20 score first, they win 92% of the time
  • 69% of Ibrachina U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 65% of São Paulo U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DWDWW
U20
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

São Paulo U20 face Ibrachina U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with São Paulo U20 hosting Ibrachina U20. Match starts August 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.