Ibrachina U20 0–2 São Paulo U20: Result & Stats

Ibrachina U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

São Paulo U20

Pedro Ferreira 6'

Menezes 3'

6/1/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ibrachina U2044%

×Draw23%

São Paulo U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibrachina U20Expected goals in this matchSão Paulo U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.47

Ibrachina U20

1.74

São Paulo U20

1.47

Ibrachina U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

2.76

creates per match

1.90

1.04

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Ibrachina U20

2.76

São Paulo U20

1.90

allows per match

Ibrachina U20

1.04

São Paulo U20

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw

67%

Ibrachina U20 or São Paulo U20

77%

Draw or São Paulo U20

56%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+

23%

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals

82%

Ibrachina U20 2+ goals

52%

Ibrachina U20 3+ goals

25%

São Paulo U20 1+ goals

77%

São Paulo U20 2+ goals

43%

São Paulo U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)

57%

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.74

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more

44%

level

23%

São Paulo U20 scores more

33%

Ibrachina U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Menezes

6'

Pedro Ferreira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff