São Paulo U20 0–0 Flamengo U20: Result & Stats

São Paulo U20

FT

0 – 0

Flamengo U20

10/1/2020

Brasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 3Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

São Paulo U2038%

×Draw25%

Flamengo U2037%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Paulo U20Expected goals in this matchFlamengo U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.43

São Paulo U20

1.45

Flamengo U20

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 60 away

1.59

creates per match

1.52

1.34

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

São Paulo U20

1.59

Flamengo U20

1.52

allows per match

São Paulo U20

1.34

Flamengo U20

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Flamengo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Flamengo U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw

63%

São Paulo U20 or Flamengo U20

75%

Draw or Flamengo U20

62%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+

18%

Flamengo U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals

77%

São Paulo U20 2+ goals

42%

São Paulo U20 3+ goals

18%

Flamengo U20 1+ goals

76%

Flamengo U20 2+ goals

42%

Flamengo U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)

51%

Flamengo U20 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 64 matches

Flamengo U20 away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Flamengo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Flamengo U20 attack 1.52 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more

38%

level

25%

Flamengo U20 scores more

37%

São Paulo U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff