Flamengo U20 4–0 São Paulo U20: Result & Stats

Flamengo U20

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

São Paulo U20

Petterson 77', 16', 3'

Mateusao 43' (pen)

6/4/2022

Brasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Luso-Brasileiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Flamengo U2049%

×Draw23%

São Paulo U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo U20Expected goals in this matchSão Paulo U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.31

Flamengo U20

1.82

São Paulo U20

1.31

Flamengo U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 59 away

1.84

creates per match

1.59

1.04

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Flamengo U20

1.84

São Paulo U20

1.59

allows per match

Flamengo U20

1.04

São Paulo U20

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo U20+0.00on par

São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Flamengo U20 or draw

72%

Flamengo U20 or São Paulo U20

77%

Draw or São Paulo U20

51%

Winning margin

Flamengo U20 wins by 2+

27%

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Flamengo U20 1+ goals

84%

Flamengo U20 2+ goals

54%

Flamengo U20 3+ goals

27%

São Paulo U20 1+ goals

73%

São Paulo U20 2+ goals

38%

São Paulo U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Flamengo U20 (draw refunded)

64%

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo U20 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo U20 attack 1.84 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.82

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Flamengo U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Flamengo U20 scores more

49%

level

23%

São Paulo U20 scores more

28%

Flamengo U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Flamengo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Petterson

16'

Petterson

43'

MateusaoPenalty

77'

Petterson

80'

Negrucci

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff