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São Paulo U20 vs Flamengo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
Unknown 78'
G. Santana 44'
Felipe Carneiro 11', 3'
5/3/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

São Paulo U2082%
×Draw12%
Flamengo SP U207%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
3.13
Flamengo SP U20
0.81

São Paulo U20 creates 286% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
3.39
Flamengo SP U20
0.88

allows per match

São Paulo U20
0.75
Flamengo SP U20
2.88

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Flamengo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
93%
São Paulo U20 or Flamengo SP U20
88%
Draw or Flamengo SP U20
18%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
63%
Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
95%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
81%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
59%
Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
56%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
19%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
92%
Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Flamengo SP U20 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 3.13

Flamengo SP U20 attack 0.88 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
82%
level
12%
Flamengo SP U20 scores more
7%

São Paulo U20 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Felipe Carneiro
11'
Felipe Carneiro
44'
G. Santana
78'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Paulo U20 vs Flamengo SP U20

São Paulo U20 beat Flamengo SP U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: Felipe Carneiro (3', 11'), G. Santana (44'), ? (78').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.