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São Paulo U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20advanced
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
M. Alves 90'
C. L. Silverio Ribeiro 87'
R. Francisco 84', 78'
Lucas Ferreira 43'
Paulinho 33'
10/20/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Quarter-finalsCentro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

São Paulo U2068%
×Draw18%
Desportivo Brasil U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
2.50
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.09

São Paulo U20 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
3.39
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.43

allows per match

São Paulo U20
0.75
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.61

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
85%
São Paulo U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20
82%
Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20
32%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
46%
Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
92%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
71%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
45%
Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
66%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
30%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
82%
Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.50

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
68%
level
18%
Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
15%

São Paulo U20 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Paulinho
43'
Lucas Ferreira
78'
R. Francisco
84'
R. Francisco
87'
C. L. Silverio Ribeiro
90'
M. Alves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: São Paulo U20 6–0 Desportivo Brasil U20

São Paulo U20 beat Desportivo Brasil U20 6-0 in Paulista - U20 on October 20, 2024.

Goals: Paulinho (33'), Lucas Ferreira (43'), R. Francisco (78', 84'), C. L. Silverio Ribeiro (87'), M. Alves (90').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.