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São Paulo U20 vs Corinthians U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
O. G. Igor 82'
Maik 67' (pen)
N. Bosshardt 54'
Leo Agostinho 45+2'
Bahia 31'
4/7/2025Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 5Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

São Paulo U2044%
×Draw23%
Corinthians U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
1.73
Corinthians U20
1.44

São Paulo U20 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 59 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
1.59
Corinthians U20
1.54

allows per match

São Paulo U20
1.34
Corinthians U20
1.88

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
68%
São Paulo U20 or Corinthians U20
77%
Draw or Corinthians U20
56%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
23%
Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
82%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
52%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
25%
Corinthians U20 1+ goals
76%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
42%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 64 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Corinthians U20 attack 1.54 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
44%
level
23%
Corinthians U20 scores more
32%

São Paulo U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
Bahia
45+2'
Leo Agostinho
54'
N. Bosshardt
67'
MaikPenalty
82'
O. G. Igor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Paulo U20 vs Corinthians U20

São Paulo U20 beat Corinthians U20 3-2 in Brasileiro U20 A on April 7, 2025.

Goals: Bahia (31'), Leo Agostinho (45+2'), N. Bosshardt (54'), Maik (67' pen), O. G. Igor (82').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.