Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

São Paulo U20 vs Capivariano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
M. Butzke 66', 61'
Paulinho 45+3'
Joao Vitor 22'
5/24/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

São Paulo U2068%
×Draw18%
Capivariano U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
2.40
Capivariano U20
1.02

São Paulo U20 creates 135% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
3.39
Capivariano U20
1.29

allows per match

São Paulo U20
0.75
Capivariano U20
1.41

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Capivariano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
85%
São Paulo U20 or Capivariano U20
82%
Draw or Capivariano U20
32%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
45%
Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
91%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
69%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
42%
Capivariano U20 1+ goals
64%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
27%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
82%
Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Capivariano U20 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.40

Capivariano U20 attack 1.29 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
68%
level
18%
Capivariano U20 scores more
15%

São Paulo U20 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Joao Vitor
45+3'
Paulinho
61'
M. Butzke
66'
M. Butzke

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

São Paulo U20 3 – 1 Capivariano U20

São Paulo U20 beat Capivariano U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2025.

Goals: Joao Vitor (22'), Paulinho (45+3'), M. Butzke (61', 66').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.