Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

São Paulo U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
Preview
18:00
Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
8/1/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 9
66%
São Paulo U20
model favours
66%18%16%

São Paulo U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

São Paulo U2066%
×Draw18%
Botafogo SP U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
2.55
Botafogo SP U20
1.21

São Paulo U20 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
3.39
Botafogo SP U20
1.67

allows per match

São Paulo U20
0.75
Botafogo SP U20
1.71

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
84%
São Paulo U20 or Botafogo SP U20
82%
Draw or Botafogo SP U20
34%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
44%
Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
92%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
72%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
46%
Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
70%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
34%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 3.39 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.55

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
66%
level
18%
Botafogo SP U20 scores more
16%

São Paulo U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When São Paulo U20 score first, they win 92% of the time
  • 65% of São Paulo U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • São Paulo U20 sit 16, Botafogo SP U20 37 in the table
  • São Paulo U20 matches are rarely goalless — only 4.3% end 0-0
  • 33% of Botafogo SP U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 21% of São Paulo U20’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DWDWW
U20
LDDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: São Paulo U20 host Botafogo SP U20

August 1, 2026: São Paulo U20 take on Botafogo SP U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.