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São Paulo U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
FT
2 – 3
Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
Vitinho 33'
Joao Adriano 12'
R. Cassiano Lima Aparecido 90+2'
d. S. Pessanha R. 61'
M. Nascimento De Paula 45+3'
9/20/2021Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 16Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

São Paulo U2042%
×Draw25%
Botafogo SP U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
1.48
Botafogo SP U20
1.25

São Paulo U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
1.59
Botafogo SP U20
1.16

allows per match

São Paulo U20
1.34
Botafogo SP U20
1.38

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
68%
São Paulo U20 or Botafogo SP U20
75%
Draw or Botafogo SP U20
58%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
21%
Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
77%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
43%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
19%
Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
71%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
36%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 64 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.16 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
42%
level
25%
Botafogo SP U20 scores more
32%

São Paulo U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Joao Adriano
33'
Vitinho
45+3'
M. Nascimento De Paula
61'
d. S. Pessanha R.
69'
L. Carrijo
72'
Enio
90+2'
R. Cassiano Lima Aparecido

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Paulo U20 vs Botafogo SP U20

Botafogo SP U20 beat São Paulo U20 3-2 in Brasileiro U20 A on September 20, 2021.

Goals: Joao Adriano (12'), Vitinho (33'), M. Nascimento De Paula (45+3'), d. S. Pessanha R. (61'), R. Cassiano Lima Aparecido (90+2').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.