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São Paulo U20 vs Atlético GO U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético GO U20
Atlético GO U20
Paulinho 58'
Yuri Alves 90'
3/19/2025Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 2Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

São Paulo U2060%
×Draw21%
Atlético GO U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Paulo U20
2.10
Atlético GO U20
1.12

São Paulo U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 40 away

creates per match

São Paulo U20
1.59
Atlético GO U20
0.90

allows per match

São Paulo U20
1.34
Atlético GO U20
2.60

finishing

São Paulo U20+0.00on par
Atlético GO U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo U20 ↓

Atlético GO U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

São Paulo U20 or draw
80%
São Paulo U20 or Atlético GO U20
79%
Draw or Atlético GO U20
40%

Winning margin

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
37%
Atlético GO U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

São Paulo U20 1+ goals
88%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
62%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
35%
Atlético GO U20 1+ goals
67%
Atlético GO U20 2+ goals
31%
Atlético GO U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Atlético GO U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 64 matches

Atlético GO U20 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Atlético GO U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.10

Atlético GO U20 attack 0.90 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

São Paulo U20 scores more
60%
level
21%
Atlético GO U20 scores more
20%

São Paulo U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
58'
Paulinho
90'
Yuri Alves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

São Paulo U20 1 – 1 Atlético GO U20

São Paulo U20 and Atlético GO U20 drew 1-1 in Brasileiro U20 A on March 19, 2025.

Goals: Paulinho (58'), Yuri Alves (90').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel in Cotia, São Paulo.